Beyond population: Why personality matters in Osun 2026

By Adebayo Adedeji

Some governorship aspirants have come hard on small towns in Osun State, claiming they do not deserve to produce a governor in 2026 due to their population size. They argue that these towns can not dislodge the incumbent governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke, who they believe has a stronghold in his hometown of Ede, therefore APC should not hand its ticket to a contender from such small towns. The drivers of the divisive theory target Irewole and Ayedaade local government areas where two leading APC hopefuls, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji ( AMBO) and Omooba Dotun Babayemi originate respectively. 

The argument that aspirants from local governments with smaller populations should not be considered for the governorship ticket is simplistic just as it is derogatory to the indigenes of those towns. 

Does a candidate's origin really count more than their personality? Evidence suggests that personality counts more than population. Voters often connect with a candidate with a pleasant and acceptable personality rather than primordial sentiments. But, are Irewole and Ayedaade truly small areas? No. Irewole, with headquarters in Ikire, is a big local government with population of 143,599 people, just few thousands behind the population of Ede, according to the 2006 Census. While Ayedaade, with headquarters in Gbongan, has a population of 150,392 people according to the 2006 census figure. Ayedaade and Isokan LGA used to be part of Irewole until 1989 and 1996 respectively, when they were carved out. So the claim that votes from Ikire or Gbongan can not rattle Ede's votes are unfounded. Èdè and Irewole, Ede and Ayedaade, Ayedade and Irewole are almost equal in population. The mobilisation drive of APC in Irewole or Ayedaade during continous voter's registration would go a long way in determining their level of competitiveness. Like Ede, Irewole and Ayedaade equally have capacity to churn out votes if their son or daughter, with good personality, is on the ballot. While I agree that a  governorship ticket under a popular party can motivate or generate interest from voters in a geographic space, such enthusiasm still boils down to the personality of the candidate holding the ticket. 

Back to the argument that personality of a candidate does count more in a political contest than the demographics of their origin. Historical examples support this position. In 1979, Chief Bola Ige defeated Chief Richard Akinjide in the gubernatorial election in the Old Oyo State despite Ige's Obòkun local government area having a population of barely 50,000 compared to Ibadan's nearly one million. If it was about population, Akinjide would have won with a wide margin.

The 2024 Edo election is another testament to the importance of personality over population. Senator Monday Okpebholo's APC won despite his hometown, Esan Central, having 68,338 registered voters, compared to 90,240 in Esan East of Asue Ighodalo. The All Progressives Congress (APC), fearing that the zoning sentiment might impact its chances of producing the governor, especially when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had zoned its ticket to Edo Central, dropped the candidature of Hon. Dennis Idahosa from Ovia South-west in Edo South senatorial district ( the most populated district) for Okpebholo. Ovia South-west had 113,924 registered voters in the election. The APC did not only win, the party won bountifully in Etsako West, Oredo and big towns outside Edo Central. The election affirms that the Edo electorate voted for APC and the personality of its Candidate. It should be noted that after the selection of Okpebholo in a rancorous primary, the party leaders came together as a united front to face their common challenger, the ruling PDP. This unity of purpose is what Osun APC desires in this critical moment, not some divide-and-rule tactics the population claim seems to represent.

APC aspirants in Osun should focus on unity and issue-based campaigns rather than insulting towns and local governments with low population. Population alone can not win elections; a candidate's character, quality of education, work experience, and manifesto are more important. If population alone can win, Senator Francis Ade Fadahunsi, from Ilase, a small town with population of less than 20,000 people would not have become the Ife/Ìjèsà senator twice, in 2019 and 2023. Similarly, the votes from the hometown of the APC candidate in the Osun East senatorial election in 2015 were not enough to deliver him; he had to rely on votes from Ilesa to edge the former customs boss who lost narrowly with 99,166 votes against APC's 101,352. This explanation points to the logic that factors more than population win elections. 

Again, if it is about population alone, the APP Candidate, Late Governor Isiaka Adetunji Adélékè from Ede and the PDP Candidate, Senator Olu Alabi from Osogbo, would have defeated Chief Bisi Akande from a relatively smaller town of Ila-orangun. 

If everything is about population, a contestant from a "small" Ila town, Olabiyi Fadeyi (Ajagunla) would not in 2023 defeat 8-2 and displace the Senate's spokesperson who incidentally is from a major town. 

Another recent example illustrating the impact of political party and candidate personality on electoral choices is the 2022 governorship election in Ife. The APC leaders in this historic town united to promote former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola's candidacy, resulting in 59,678 votes for the party. This outcome surpassed the 43,369 votes garnered by Senator Ademola Adeleke in Ede during the same election and exceeded the 49,446 votes an Ife son received in 2018 when he contested. This demonstrates that if APC selects a flag-bearer from outside Ifeland and party leaders in the area rally behind him, Ife voters are likely to give their massive support.

Rather than heating up the polity with some primordial sentiments and clannish entitlements, APC aspirants are urged to focus on issue-based campaigns, highlighting their qualifications, work experience, and plans for the state. Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji and Omooba Dotun Babayemi are doing excellently in this regard. Even though the West L'ọkan question favours them, they have adopted an issue-based approach, showcasing their characters, work, and political experiences, 

in all the wards, local governments and communities they visit. For instance, anywhere AMBO goes, he espouses his achievements as former Managing Director of Osun Investment Company (OSICOL) and how he breathed life into and transformed the moribund company from a N350 million capital base to a N5 billion conglomerate in just five years. At every opportunity, he shares his experience as Finance Commissioner; how he, within short time as commissioner, re-activated the full-salary system for civil servants, diversified the state's revenue streams into oil, gas, and real estate, and offset N97 billion of inherited debt without borrowing from commercial banks. Not only has his issue-based approach demonstrated his readiness to lead, it has also projected him as a credible and viable alternative to replace the bumbling governor under whose care the state has been taken back to the stone age where life was nasty, brutish and short. 

Aspirants should market their fine credentials and make restoration plans the foundation and focus of their public engagement. Less emphasis should be laid on demographics and other hollow sentiments. Every village or town in Osun has a son or daughter that can lead creditably, irrespective of their demographic shortcomings. We should learn how not to stereotype our compatriots because they are from less cities or minority communities. No town, or senatorial district, no matter the hugeness of its population, can produce a governor on its own. Everyone is needed.